Justin Jefferson (Wide Receiver, MIN) enters the 2026 draft season as our model's WR4, projected for ~256 PPR points (overall rank 17). In the 2025 season they finished as the WR20 in PPR scoring. Projections come from prior-season form, usage and opponent strength — a data baseline for draft research, not a betting edge.
The market drafts Justin Jefferson on average 5 spots EARLIER than our board (ADP rank 12 vs model rank 17) — beware of reaching.
Pace assumes a full 17-game season at the player's current modelled per-game rate — it does not account for injury, role changes, suspensions or coaching decisions that can shift usage during the season. Data baseline for research, not a betting edge.
| Scoring | Proj pts | VOR | Tier | Overall | Pos rank | ADP | TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 256 | 80 | 1 | 17 | WR4 | 11.8 | 29% |
| Half-PPR | 213 | 67 | 1 | 18 | WR4 | 14.2 | 29% |
| Standard | 169 | 56 | 1 | 20 | WR4 | 16.3 | 29% |
| Season | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 141 | 84 | 1048 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 202 |
| 2024 | 17 | 154 | 103 | 1533 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 318 |
| 2023 | 10 | 100 | 68 | 1074 | 5 | 1 | -12 | 204 |
| 2022 | 17 | 184 | 128 | 1809 | 8 | 4 | 24 | 367 |
| 2021 | 17 | 167 | 108 | 1616 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 332 |
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 7 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14.8 |
| 2 | ATL | 6 | 3 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 3 | CIN | 7 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 4 | PIT | 11 | 10 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.6 |
| 5 | CLE | 11 | 7 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.3 |
| 7 | PHI | 10 | 5 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 8 | LAC | 11 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 9 | DET | 9 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16.7 |
| 10 | BAL | 12 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 11 | CHI | 9 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 12 | GB | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 13 | SEA | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 14 | WAS | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 15 | DAL | 8 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 16 | NYG | 8 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 17 | DET | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 18 | GB | 11 | 8 | 101 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18.4 |