Patrick Mahomes (Quarterback, KC) enters the 2026 draft season as our model's QB3, projected for ~303 PPR points (overall rank 27). In the 2025 season they finished as the QB11 in PPR scoring. Projections come from prior-season form, usage and opponent strength — a data baseline for draft research, not a betting edge.
The market drafts Patrick Mahomes on average 73 spots LATER than our board (ADP rank 100 vs model rank 27) — potential draft value.
Pace assumes a full 17-game season at the player's current modelled per-game rate — it does not account for injury, role changes, suspensions or coaching decisions that can shift usage during the season. Data baseline for research, not a betting edge.
| Scoring | Proj pts | VOR | Tier | Overall | Pos rank | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 303 | 57 | 1 | 27 | QB3 | 102.3 |
| Half-PPR | 302 | 56 | 2 | 21 | QB4 | 102.6 |
| Standard | 302 | 56 | 2 | 19 | QB4 | 105.6 |
| Season | G | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | 3587 | 22 | 11 | 64 | 422 | 5 | 282 |
| 2024 | 16 | 3928 | 26 | 11 | 58 | 307 | 2 | 283 |
| 2023 | 16 | 4183 | 27 | 14 | 75 | 389 | 0 | 286 |
| 2022 | 17 | 5250 | 41 | 12 | 61 | 358 | 4 | 411 |
| 2021 | 17 | 4839 | 37 | 13 | 66 | 381 | 2 | 366 |
| Wk | Opp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 258 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 57 | 1 | 26.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 187 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 22.1 |
| 3 | NYG | 224 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13.2 |
| 4 | BAL | 270 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 27.3 |
| 5 | JAX | 318 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 26.7 |
| 6 | DET | 257 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 31.5 |
| 7 | LV | 286 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 26.2 |
| 8 | WAS | 299 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 23.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 250 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 276 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 12 | IND | 352 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 15.1 |
| 13 | DAL | 261 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 29.4 |
| 14 | HOU | 160 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 6.3 |
| 15 | LAC | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 13.1 |