Bundesliga Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The weekend slate

9 Bundesliga fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Aug 28–31, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is FC Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Bundesliga hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

FC Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart — Fri, Aug 28, 20:30

Our model prices FC Bayern München at 68%, the draw at 19% and VfB Stuttgart at 14%. The model's expected total is ~3.8 goals, leaning Under 4.25 (~64%). Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Bayern München W-W-D-W-W, VfB Stuttgart D-W-D-D-L.

1. FC Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt — Sat, Aug 29, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FC Union Berlin W-W-D-L-L, Eintracht Frankfurt D-L-L-D-L.

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — Sat, Aug 29, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): RB Leipzig L-W-L-W-W, Borussia Mönchengladbach W-L-W-D-D.

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 — Sat, Aug 29, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FSV Mainz 05 W-L-W-L-D, SC Paderborn 07 W-D-L-L-D.

SV 07 Elversberg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Sat, Aug 29, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SV 07 Elversberg W-L-W-D-W, Bayer 04 Leverkusen D-L-W-W-L.

1. FC Köln vs TSG Hoffenheim — Sat, Aug 29, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FC Köln L-L-D-L-D, TSG Hoffenheim L-W-D-W-W.

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV — Sat, Aug 29, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Borussia Dortmund W-W-L-W-L, Hamburger SV D-W-W-L-L.

SC Freiburg vs SV Werder Bremen — Sun, Aug 30, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Freiburg W-L-D-L-W, SV Werder Bremen L-L-L-D-W.

FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 — Sun, Aug 30, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Augsburg L-W-W-D-W, FC Schalke 04 W-L-W-W-W.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.