Serie A Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The weekend slate

10 Serie A fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Aug 28–31, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is AC Milan vs Venezia FC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Serie A hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

AC Milan vs Venezia FC — Fri, Aug 28, 20:45

Our model prices AC Milan at 94%, the draw at 5% and Venezia FC at 1%. The model's expected total is ~2.9 goals, leaning Over 2.75 (~50%). Form (last 5, most recent first): AC Milan W-L-W-L-L, Venezia FC L.

US Sassuolo Calcio vs Torino FC — Sat, Aug 29, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): US Sassuolo Calcio L-L-L-L-W, Torino FC L-D-L-W-L.

ACF Fiorentina vs Frosinone Calcio — Sat, Aug 29, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): ACF Fiorentina L-D-W-D-L, Frosinone Calcio L.

AC Monza vs Udinese Calcio — Sat, Aug 29, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): AC Monza L, Udinese Calcio D-L-L-W-W.

Juventus FC vs Parma Calcio 1913 — Sat, Aug 29, 20:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): Juventus FC W-D-L-W-D, Parma Calcio 1913 L-W-L-L-L.

SSC Napoli vs Como 1907 — Sun, Aug 30, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SSC Napoli W-W-W-L-D, Como 1907 D-W-W-W-D.

Cagliari Calcio vs FC Internazionale Milano — Sun, Aug 30, 20:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): Cagliari Calcio W-W-W-L-D, FC Internazionale Milano W-D-D-W-W.

SS Lazio vs Genoa CFC — Sun, Aug 30, 20:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): SS Lazio W-W-L-L-W, Genoa CFC L-L-L-D-D.

US Lecce vs AS Roma — Mon, Aug 31, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): US Lecce W-W-W-L-W, AS Roma W-W-W-W-W.

Atalanta BC vs Bologna FC 1909 — Mon, Aug 31, 20:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): Atalanta BC W-D-L-W-D, Bologna FC 1909 L-D-W-W-D.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.