Bundesliga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Bundesliga weekend (Sep 11–14, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Bundesliga hub.

• 1. FC Union Berlin 1–3 FC Schalke 04 — model lean: the draw (81%) ❌
• FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen — model lean: FC Augsburg (74%) ❌
• 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt — model lean: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (76%) ❌
• Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07 — model lean: Borussia Dortmund (79%) ✅
• SC Freiburg 5–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach — model lean: SC Freiburg (92%) ✅
• TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart — model lean: VfB Stuttgart (52%) ❌
• 1. FC Köln 1–1 SV Werder Bremen — model lean: SV Werder Bremen (35%) ❌
• RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SV — model lean: RB Leipzig (51%) ✅
• SV 07 Elversberg 1–2 FC Bayern München — model lean: FC Bayern München (51%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• 1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — FC Schalke 04 +0.25: ✅ Won (+0.74u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — Borussia Dortmund +0: ✅ Won (+0.24u, CLV -0.3pp)
• 1. FC Köln vs SV Werder Bremen — SV Werder Bremen +0.50: ✅ Won (+1.20u, CLV +0.0pp)
• RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV — RB Leipzig +0: ✅ Won (+0.92u, CLV +3.1pp)
• RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV — Under3.5: ❌ Lost (-2.42u, CLV +16.8pp)
• SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Bayern München — Under4.5: ✅ Won (+0.98u, CLV +14.9pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.