Eredivisie Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Eredivisie weekend (Sep 11–14, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Eredivisie hub.

• AZ 1–1 Willem II Tilburg — model lean: AZ (80%) ❌
• FC Twente '65 2–0 ADO Den Haag — model lean: FC Twente '65 (69%) ✅
• Go Ahead Eagles 1–1 FC Groningen — model lean: the draw (48%) ✅
• Fortuna Sittard 1–5 AFC Ajax — model lean: the draw (45%) ❌
• SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 3–0 NEC — model lean: NEC (63%) ❌
• SBV Excelsior 1–2 FC Utrecht — model lean: SBV Excelsior (76%) ❌
• SC Heerenveen 0–0 Telstar 1963 — model lean: the draw (72%) ✅
• PEC Zwolle 0–7 Feyenoord Rotterdam — model lean: Feyenoord Rotterdam (57%) ✅
• PSV 4–1 Sparta Rotterdam — model lean: PSV (74%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Twente '65 vs ADO Den Haag — FC Twente '65 +0: ✅ Won (+0.44u, CLV +3.1pp)
• SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs NEC — Over3.5: ❌ Lost (-0.65u, CLV +0.0pp)
• PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Rotterdam — PEC Zwolle +1.25: ❌ Lost (-1.44u, CLV +3.6pp)
• PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Rotterdam — Feyenoord Rotterdam +0: ✅ Won (+1.22u, CLV +7.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.