Championship Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Championship weekend (Sep 11–14, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 12 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Championship hub.

• West Ham United FC 6–0 Wrexham AFC — model lean: West Ham United FC (54%) ✅
• Derby County FC 1–2 Birmingham City FC — model lean: the draw (58%) ❌
• West Bromwich Albion FC 1–1 Queens Park Rangers FC — model lean: West Bromwich Albion FC (43%) ❌
• Bolton Wanderers FC 1–0 Cardiff City FC — model lean: the draw (48%) ❌
• Watford FC 1–2 Stoke City FC — model lean: Stoke City FC (35%) ✅
• Southampton FC 4–1 Bristol City FC — model lean: the draw (44%) ❌
• Charlton Athletic FC 0–0 Portsmouth FC — model lean: Charlton Athletic FC (65%) ❌
• Middlesbrough FC 4–3 Norwich City FC — model lean: Middlesbrough FC (58%) ✅
• Swansea City AFC 3–1 Burnley FC — model lean: Swansea City AFC (84%) ✅
• Preston North End FC 0–1 Lincoln City FC — model lean: the draw (49%) ❌
• Blackburn Rovers FC 3–1 Millwall FC — model lean: the draw (50%) ❌
• Sheffield United FC 0–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — model lean: the draw (46%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• West Ham United FC vs Wrexham AFC — West Ham United FC +0: ✅ Won (+0.99u, CLV +4.7pp)
• Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC — Derby County FC +0.25: ❌ Lost (-0.74u, CLV +6.6pp)
• West Bromwich Albion FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC — West Bromwich Albion FC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV -0.9pp)
• Middlesbrough FC vs Norwich City FC — Middlesbrough FC to win: ✅ Won (+0.78u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Blackburn Rovers FC vs Millwall FC — Blackburn Rovers FC +0: ✅ Won (+0.99u, CLV +18.7pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 12 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.