Ligue 1 Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Ligue 1 weekend (Sep 11–14, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 6 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Ligue 1 hub.

• Stade Rennais FC 1901 1–0 Olympique de Marseille — model lean: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (66%) ✅
• RC Strasbourg Alsace 1–1 AS Monaco FC — model lean: AS Monaco FC (57%) ❌
• FC Lorient 2–2 Toulouse FC — model lean: the draw (55%) ✅
• Le Havre AC 0–0 Angers SCO — model lean: the draw (53%) ✅
• Paris FC 0–0 Olympique Lyonnais — model lean: the draw (59%) ✅
• AJ Auxerre 1–0 OGC Nice — model lean: OGC Nice (47%) ❌
• Lille OSC 2–0 ES Troyes AC — model lean: Lille OSC (60%) ✅
• Le Mans FC 2–2 Racing Club de Lens — model lean: the draw (88%) ✅
• Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint-Germain FC — model lean: the draw (46%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• RC Strasbourg Alsace vs AS Monaco FC — AS Monaco FC -0.25: ½ lost (-0.55u, CLV -2.0pp)
• FC Lorient vs Toulouse FC — FC Lorient to win: ❌ Lost (-0.93u, CLV +2.9pp)
• Lille OSC vs ES Troyes AC — Lille OSC +0: ✅ Won (+0.88u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Lille OSC vs ES Troyes AC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+2.59u, CLV +16.8pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.