Primeira Liga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Primeira Liga weekend (Sep 11–14, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 2 of 6 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Primeira Liga hub.

• CD Nacional 1–3 FC Alverca — model lean: the draw (56%) ❌
• Casa Pia AC 1–4 FC Porto — model lean: FC Porto (87%) ✅
• Académico de Viseu FC 2–1 Vitória SC — model lean: the draw (72%) ❌
• FC Arouca 1–2 CD Santa Clara — model lean: the draw (61%) ❌
• Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3–1 Gil Vicente FC — model lean: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (66%) ✅
• FC Famalicão 1–1 Sporting Clube de Portugal — model lean: Sporting Clube de Portugal (59%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Casa Pia AC vs FC Porto — FC Porto to win: ✅ Won (+0.90u, CLV +2.5pp)
• FC Arouca vs CD Santa Clara — FC Arouca +0: ❌ Lost (-1.65u, CLV +4.7pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 6 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.