Bundesliga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Bundesliga weekend (Sep 18–21, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Bundesliga hub.

• FC Bayern München 7–0 1. FC Union Berlin — model lean: FC Bayern München (88%) ✅
• Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 1. FSV Mainz 05 — model lean: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (69%) ✅
• Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 SC Freiburg — model lean: SC Freiburg (68%) ❌
• Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Köln — model lean: 1. FC Köln (79%) ❌
• SV Werder Bremen 3–2 FC Augsburg — model lean: FC Augsburg (52%) ❌
• VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia Dortmund — model lean: Borussia Dortmund (69%) ✅
• Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 RB Leipzig — model lean: the draw (53%) ❌
• FC Schalke 04 0–0 SV 07 Elversberg — model lean: the draw (50%) ✅
• SC Paderborn 07 3–1 TSG Hoffenheim — model lean: the draw (60%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Union Berlin +3.00: ❌ Lost (-1.11u, CLV +2.5pp)
• FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union Berlin — Under4.5: ❌ Lost (-1.73u, CLV +15.0pp)
• SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg — Over3.5: ✅ Won (+0.97u, CLV +9.4pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.