Ligue 1 Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Ligue 1 weekend (Sep 18–21, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 2 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Ligue 1 hub.

• AS Monaco FC 2–1 Racing Club de Lens — model lean: AS Monaco FC (77%) ✅
• Paris FC 2–1 RC Strasbourg Alsace — model lean: Paris FC (45%) ✅
• Olympique Lyonnais 4–0 Stade Rennais FC 1901 — model lean: the draw (44%) ❌
• Angers SCO 2–0 ES Troyes AC — model lean: the draw (73%) ❌
• Toulouse FC 3–2 Le Havre AC — model lean: the draw (76%) ❌
• Le Mans FC 2–1 FC Lorient — model lean: the draw (79%) ❌
• AJ Auxerre 2–1 Stade Brestois 29 — model lean: the draw (76%) ❌
• OGC Nice 2–1 Lille OSC — model lean: Lille OSC (80%) ❌
• Olympique de Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain FC — model lean: the draw (63%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Toulouse FC vs Le Havre AC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.69u, CLV +15.8pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.