Serie A Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Serie A weekend (Sep 18–21, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 6 of 10 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Serie A hub.

• AC Monza 2–1 US Sassuolo Calcio — model lean: US Sassuolo Calcio (73%) ❌
• Udinese Calcio 0–1 Cagliari Calcio — model lean: Cagliari Calcio (50%) ✅
• Bologna FC 1909 1–1 Torino FC — model lean: the draw (64%) ✅
• AS Roma 2–2 FC Internazionale Milano — model lean: the draw (44%) ✅
• Venezia FC 0–2 SS Lazio — model lean: SS Lazio (76%) ✅
• ACF Fiorentina 1–1 SSC Napoli — model lean: the draw (69%) ✅
• Frosinone Calcio 2–0 Como 1907 — model lean: Como 1907 (51%) ❌
• Parma Calcio 1913 2–1 Genoa CFC — model lean: the draw (71%) ❌
• Juventus FC 2–0 Atalanta BC — model lean: the draw (50%) ❌
• AC Milan 3–0 US Lecce — model lean: AC Milan (69%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Bologna FC 1909 vs Torino FC — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-0.66u, CLV +8.2pp)
• Venezia FC vs SS Lazio — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+1.24u, CLV +9.9pp)
• Juventus FC vs Atalanta BC — Atalanta BC +1.00: ❌ Lost (-1.68u, CLV +0.6pp)
• AC Milan vs US Lecce — US Lecce +1.75: ❌ Lost (-1.80u, CLV -4.0pp)
• AC Milan vs US Lecce — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.55u, CLV +22.8pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 10 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.