Championship Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Championship weekend (Sep 18–21, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 12 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Championship hub.

• Bristol City FC 1–0 Watford FC — model lean: Bristol City FC (47%) ✅
• Cardiff City FC 3–1 Charlton Athletic FC — model lean: Charlton Athletic FC (67%) ❌
• Millwall FC 2–2 West Ham United FC — model lean: West Ham United FC (41%) ❌
• Stoke City FC 2–1 Sheffield United FC — model lean: Stoke City FC (48%) ✅
• Burnley FC 1–1 Derby County FC — model lean: the draw (35%) ✅
• Birmingham City FC 2–2 Middlesbrough FC — model lean: Middlesbrough FC (45%) ❌
• Portsmouth FC 2–2 Blackburn Rovers FC — model lean: the draw (50%) ✅
• Queens Park Rangers FC 2–2 Preston North End FC — model lean: Queens Park Rangers FC (83%) ❌
• Lincoln City FC 1–2 Swansea City AFC — model lean: Swansea City AFC (41%) ✅
• Wrexham AFC 2–1 Southampton FC — model lean: Southampton FC (51%) ❌
• Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1–0 West Bromwich Albion FC — model lean: the draw (46%) ❌
• Norwich City FC 3–4 Bolton Wanderers FC — model lean: Norwich City FC (48%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Bristol City FC vs Watford FC — Watford FC +0.75: ½ lost (-0.64u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Millwall FC vs West Ham United FC — West Ham United FC -0.75: ❌ Lost (-2.01u, CLV +0.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 12 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.