Bundesliga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 16–19, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Bundesliga weekend (Oct 16–19, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Bundesliga hub.

• Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln — model lean: 1. FC Köln (49%) ❌
• 1. FC Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund — model lean: Borussia Dortmund (94%) ❌
• SV Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 — model lean: SV Werder Bremen (54%) ❌
• SV 07 Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg — model lean: SV 07 Elversberg (43%) ✅
• FC Schalke 04 0–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 — model lean: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (46%) ✅
• Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart — model lean: the draw (36%) ❌
• FC Bayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig — model lean: FC Bayern München (57%) ✅
• Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg — model lean: SC Freiburg (48%) ❌
• Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim — model lean: TSG Hoffenheim (45%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Augsburg — SV 07 Elversberg to win: ✅ Won (+2.08u, CLV +2.0pp)
• FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win: ✅ Won (+1.71u, CLV -5.6pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.