Championship Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 16–19, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Championship weekend (Oct 16–19, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 12 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Championship hub.

• Burnley FC 1–2 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — model lean: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (58%) ✅
• Millwall FC 2–2 Lincoln City FC — model lean: Millwall FC (52%) ❌
• Watford FC 2–0 Charlton Athletic FC — model lean: Charlton Athletic FC (57%) ❌
• Middlesbrough FC 2–2 Cardiff City FC — model lean: Middlesbrough FC (61%) ❌
• Southampton FC 0–0 Bolton Wanderers FC — model lean: Southampton FC (62%) ❌
• West Bromwich Albion FC 3–2 Blackburn Rovers FC — model lean: West Bromwich Albion FC (51%) ✅
• Wrexham AFC 4–1 Preston North End FC — model lean: Wrexham AFC (51%) ✅
• Norwich City FC 0–1 Portsmouth FC — model lean: the draw (40%) ❌
• Bristol City FC 0–1 Sheffield United FC — model lean: Bristol City FC (49%) ❌
• Birmingham City FC 3–0 Queens Park Rangers FC — model lean: Queens Park Rangers FC (44%) ❌
• Derby County FC 0–1 Stoke City FC — model lean: Stoke City FC (50%) ✅
• Swansea City AFC 0–1 West Ham United FC — model lean: Swansea City AFC (51%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Millwall FC vs Lincoln City FC — Millwall FC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +1.6pp)
• Middlesbrough FC vs Cardiff City FC — Middlesbrough FC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +1.9pp)
• Southampton FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC — Southampton FC to win: ❌ Lost (-4.01u, CLV +4.2pp)
• West Bromwich Albion FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC — West Bromwich Albion FC +0: ✅ Won (+2.06u, CLV +1.4pp)
• Wrexham AFC vs Preston North End FC — Wrexham AFC +0: ✅ Won (+1.53u, CLV +9.0pp)
• Bristol City FC vs Sheffield United FC — Bristol City FC +0: ❌ Lost (-4.05u, CLV +7.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 12 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.