Serie A Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 16–19, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Serie A weekend (Oct 16–19, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 6 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Serie A hub.

• Frosinone Calcio 4–2 US Sassuolo Calcio — model lean: Frosinone Calcio (44%) ✅
• Venezia FC 1–0 SSC Napoli — model lean: SSC Napoli (81%) ❌
• Bologna FC 1909 1–3 FC Internazionale Milano — model lean: FC Internazionale Milano (94%) ✅
• AS Roma 2–0 Genoa CFC — model lean: AS Roma (94%) ✅
• Udinese Calcio 0–3 US Lecce — model lean: the draw (34%) ❌
• ACF Fiorentina 1–3 Como 1907 — model lean: Como 1907 (60%) ✅
• AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta BC — model lean: AC Milan (59%) ✅
• Juventus FC 0–3 SS Lazio — model lean: SS Lazio (53%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Frosinone Calcio vs US Sassuolo Calcio — Frosinone Calcio to win: ✅ Won (+2.60u, CLV -0.8pp)
• AC Milan vs Atalanta BC — AC Milan to win: ✅ Won (+1.40u, CLV +10.4pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.