Premier League Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 16–19, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Premier League weekend (Oct 16–19, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 3 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Premier League hub.

• Everton FC 0–2 Chelsea FC — model lean: Everton FC (45%) ❌
• Fulham FC 1–0 Hull City AFC — model lean: Hull City AFC (58%) ❌
• Brentford FC 1–2 Liverpool FC — model lean: Brentford FC (51%) ❌
• Manchester City FC 3–2 Ipswich Town FC — model lean: Manchester City FC (89%) ✅
• Newcastle United FC 0–1 Aston Villa FC — model lean: Newcastle United FC (48%) ❌
• Leeds United FC 1–1 Manchester United FC — model lean: Leeds United FC (47%) ❌
• Brighton & Hove Albion FC 5–0 Crystal Palace FC — model lean: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (63%) ✅
• AFC Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland AFC — model lean: the draw (78%) ❌
• Nottingham Forest FC 0–1 Arsenal FC — model lean: Arsenal FC (79%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Manchester City FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Manchester City FC +0: ✅ Won (+0.57u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Brighton & Hove Albion FC to win: ✅ Won (+2.49u, CLV +10.5pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.