Championship Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The weekend slate

12 Championship fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Aug 28–31, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Wrexham AFC vs Birmingham City FC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Championship hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Wrexham AFC vs Birmingham City FC — Fri, Aug 28, 21:00

Our model prices Wrexham AFC at 7%, the draw at 88% and Birmingham City FC at 5%. The model's expected total is ~2.8 goals, leaning Over 2.5 (~50%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Wrexham AFC D-D-D-L-W, Birmingham City FC D-D-D-W-W.

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Stoke City FC — Sat, Aug 29, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Wolverhampton Wanderers FC W-D-D-D-L, Stoke City FC L-L-L-L-L.

Derby County FC vs Swansea City AFC — Sat, Aug 29, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Derby County FC D-L-L-W-L, Swansea City AFC D-W-W-D-W.

Middlesbrough FC vs West Bromwich Albion FC — Sat, Aug 29, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Middlesbrough FC L-W-D-D-D, West Bromwich Albion FC W-W-L-D-W.

Cardiff City FC vs Sheffield United FC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Cardiff City FC D-D, Sheffield United FC D-D-W-L-L.

Norwich City FC vs Burnley FC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Norwich City FC L-L-L-D-W, Burnley FC L-D-D-L-D.

Bolton Wanderers FC vs Lincoln City FC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Bolton Wanderers FC D-W, Lincoln City FC L-L.

Bristol City FC vs Portsmouth FC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Bristol City FC D-L-W-L-D, Portsmouth FC W-L-D-W-L.

Southampton FC vs Millwall FC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Southampton FC W-L-L-D-D, Millwall FC W-W-L-D-W.

Charlton Athletic FC vs Preston North End FC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Charlton Athletic FC W-W-L-W-L, Preston North End FC L-L-L-W-L.

Blackburn Rovers FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Blackburn Rovers FC W-D-L-W-L, Queens Park Rangers FC D-W-L-L-L.

Watford FC vs West Ham United FC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Watford FC D-W-L-L-L, West Ham United FC L-D-W-L-L.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.