Championship Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 14–17, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Championship weekend (Aug 14–17, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 11 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Championship hub.

• Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 2–2 Blackburn Rovers FC — model lean: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (44%) ❌
• Bolton Wanderers FC 2–1 Preston North End FC — model lean: Bolton Wanderers FC (44%) ✅
• Stoke City FC 1–2 Swansea City AFC — model lean: Stoke City FC (64%) ❌
• Charlton Athletic FC 2–1 Derby County FC — model lean: Derby County FC (36%) ❌
• Bristol City FC 0–2 Millwall FC — model lean: Millwall FC (38%) ✅
• Middlesbrough FC 2–1 Lincoln City FC — model lean: Middlesbrough FC (43%) ✅
• Portsmouth FC 1–3 Queens Park Rangers FC — model lean: Portsmouth FC (49%) ❌
• Norwich City FC 1–2 West Bromwich Albion FC — model lean: the draw (42%) ❌
• Sheffield United FC 0–0 Birmingham City FC — model lean: Sheffield United FC (43%) ❌
• Watford FC 2–1 Southampton FC — model lean: Watford FC (35%) ✅
• Burnley FC 2–2 West Ham United FC — model lean: West Ham United FC (54%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.58u, CLV +5.7pp)
• Bolton Wanderers FC vs Preston North End FC — the draw: ❌ Lost (-1.18u, CLV +3.6pp)
• Bolton Wanderers FC vs Preston North End FC — Bolton Wanderers FC -0.25: ✅ Won (+1.49u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Bolton Wanderers FC vs Preston North End FC — Over2.25: ✅ Won (+1.99u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Stoke City FC vs Swansea City AFC — Over2.5: ✅ Won (+3.86u, CLV +5.5pp)
• Charlton Athletic FC vs Derby County FC — Derby County FC +0: ❌ Lost (-1.36u, CLV +5.2pp)
• Bristol City FC vs Millwall FC — Millwall FC to win: ✅ Won (+1.50u, CLV -0.4pp)
• Portsmouth FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.97u, CLV -1.1pp)
• Norwich City FC vs West Bromwich Albion FC — West Bromwich Albion FC +0.50: ✅ Won (+1.62u, CLV +3.8pp)
• Sheffield United FC vs Birmingham City FC — Sheffield United FC to win: ❌ Lost (-1.37u, CLV +13.6pp)
• Watford FC vs Southampton FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.13u, CLV +1.9pp)
• Burnley FC vs West Ham United FC — Burnley FC +0.25: ½ won (+0.97u, CLV +3.7pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 11 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.