Primeira Liga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 14–17, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Primeira Liga weekend (Aug 14–17, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 0 of 3 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Primeira Liga hub.

• CD Nacional 2–0 GD Estoril Praia — model lean: the draw (88%) ❌
• FC Arouca 4–0 Moreirense FC — model lean: the draw (49%) ❌
• FC Famalicão 1–2 CS Marítimo — model lean: the draw (54%) ❌

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 3 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.