Eredivisie Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 14–17, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Eredivisie weekend (Aug 14–17, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 3 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Eredivisie hub.

• Telstar 1963 1–3 Sparta Rotterdam — model lean: Telstar 1963 (85%) ❌
• Willem II Tilburg 1–4 NEC — model lean: the draw (79%) ❌
• FC Utrecht 1–4 AZ — model lean: AZ (95%) ✅
• SBV Excelsior 1–2 PSV — model lean: SBV Excelsior (55%) ❌
• Fortuna Sittard 3–1 SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — model lean: the draw (54%) ❌
• ADO Den Haag 1–4 FC Groningen — model lean: FC Groningen (78%) ✅
• FC Twente '65 3–1 PEC Zwolle — model lean: the draw (49%) ❌
• Feyenoord Rotterdam 2–2 Go Ahead Eagles — model lean: Feyenoord Rotterdam (49%) ❌
• AFC Ajax 2–2 SC Heerenveen — model lean: the draw (52%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Utrecht vs AZ — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-3.01u, CLV +7.4pp)
• Fortuna Sittard vs SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — Fortuna Sittard -0.75: ✅ Won (+1.78u, CLV +3.8pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.