La Liga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 14–17, 2026)

The results

Here is how the La Liga weekend (Aug 14–17, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 1 of 4 results. All season-long numbers for the league: La Liga hub.

• Deportivo Alavés 3–0 Getafe CF — model lean: the draw (44%) ❌
• Sevilla FC 2–1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — model lean: the draw (46%) ❌
• Real Racing Club de Santander 2–2 Villarreal CF — model lean: the draw (39%) ✅
• RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 3–0 Levante UD — model lean: the draw (38%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Sevilla FC vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — Sevilla FC +0: ✅ Won (+2.27u, CLV -0.9pp)
• Real Racing Club de Santander vs Villarreal CF — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-3.28u, CLV +9.3pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 4 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.