Eredivisie Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The weekend slate

9 Eredivisie fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Aug 28–31, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Eredivisie hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard — Fri, Aug 28, 20:00

Our model prices FC Groningen at 39%, the draw at 47% and Fortuna Sittard at 14%. The model's expected total is ~3.1 goals, leaning Under 3.25 (~59%). Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Groningen L-W-W-W-W, Fortuna Sittard L-W-D-L-W. Deep dive: full match preview.

SBV Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam — Sat, Aug 29, 16:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SBV Excelsior L-W-W-D-W, Sparta Rotterdam D-W-L-L-L.

AZ vs Go Ahead Eagles — Sat, Aug 29, 18:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): AZ W-W-W-D-D, Go Ahead Eagles W-D-W-L-L.

PEC Zwolle vs NEC — Sat, Aug 29, 21:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): PEC Zwolle W-L-L-L-L, NEC W-L-W-L-D.

FC Utrecht vs PSV — Sun, Aug 30, 12:15

Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Utrecht D-L-L-W-W, PSV W-W-D-W-W.

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs ADO Den Haag — Sun, Aug 30, 14:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Feyenoord Rotterdam W-D-W-W-D, ADO Den Haag L-L-L.

Willem II Tilburg vs SC Heerenveen — Sun, Aug 30, 14:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Willem II Tilburg L-L, SC Heerenveen L-D-W-D-L.

Telstar 1963 vs AFC Ajax — Sun, Aug 30, 16:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): Telstar 1963 L-W-W-W-D, AFC Ajax D-W-D-L-D.

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs FC Twente '65 — Sun, Aug 30, 20:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden L-L-L, FC Twente '65 W-L-L-W-D.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.