Eredivisie Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Eredivisie weekend (Sep 18–21, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Eredivisie hub.

• FC Groningen 3–0 PEC Zwolle — model lean: FC Groningen (61%) ✅
• ADO Den Haag 1–1 SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — model lean: the draw (57%) ✅
• Sparta Rotterdam 0–4 SC Heerenveen — model lean: the draw (46%) ❌
• AFC Ajax 2–2 SBV Excelsior — model lean: AFC Ajax (63%) ❌
• Willem II Tilburg 0–1 Fortuna Sittard — model lean: Fortuna Sittard (71%) ✅
• Feyenoord Rotterdam 5–0 FC Utrecht — model lean: Feyenoord Rotterdam (78%) ✅
• FC Twente '65 3–2 PSV — model lean: PSV (50%) ❌
• AZ 1–0 Telstar 1963 — model lean: AZ (76%) ✅
• NEC 1–1 Go Ahead Eagles — model lean: Go Ahead Eagles (43%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• ADO Den Haag vs SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +8.3pp)
• AZ vs Telstar 1963 — AZ +0: ✅ Won (+0.74u, CLV +1.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.