Eredivisie Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 16–19, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Eredivisie weekend (Oct 16–19, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Eredivisie hub.

• SC Heerenveen 4–0 SBV Excelsior — model lean: SC Heerenveen (40%) ✅
• ADO Den Haag 2–1 PSV — model lean: PSV (86%) ❌
• Telstar 1963 3–4 Feyenoord Rotterdam — model lean: Feyenoord Rotterdam (84%) ✅
• Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II Tilburg — model lean: Sparta Rotterdam (68%) ✅
• PEC Zwolle 4–1 Go Ahead Eagles — model lean: Go Ahead Eagles (69%) ❌
• SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2–2 AZ — model lean: AZ (87%) ❌
• FC Groningen 2–5 AFC Ajax — model lean: AFC Ajax (38%) ✅
• FC Twente '65 1–2 FC Utrecht — model lean: FC Twente '65 (79%) ❌
• NEC 2–2 Fortuna Sittard — model lean: Fortuna Sittard (42%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Twente '65 vs FC Utrecht — FC Twente '65 to win: ❌ Lost (-5.00u, CLV +2.2pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.