Ligue 1 Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 16–19, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Ligue 1 weekend (Oct 16–19, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 3 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Ligue 1 hub.

• Le Mans FC 0–3 Toulouse FC — model lean: the draw (48%) ❌
• RC Strasbourg Alsace 1–3 Paris Saint-Germain FC — model lean: Paris Saint-Germain FC (48%) ✅
• Lille OSC 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 — model lean: Lille OSC (50%) ❌
• ES Troyes AC 1–3 Racing Club de Lens — model lean: Racing Club de Lens (39%) ✅
• Angers SCO 2–5 Olympique de Marseille — model lean: Angers SCO (40%) ❌
• FC Lorient 1–0 AS Monaco FC — model lean: AS Monaco FC (67%) ❌
• Paris FC 4–3 Stade Rennais FC 1901 — model lean: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (44%) ❌
• Le Havre AC 1–3 AJ Auxerre — model lean: the draw (51%) ❌
• Olympique Lyonnais 2–1 OGC Nice — model lean: Olympique Lyonnais (62%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Le Mans FC vs Toulouse FC — Le Mans FC to win: ❌ Lost (-0.63u, CLV -9.6pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.