Premier League Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Premier League weekend (Sep 11–14, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Premier League hub.

• Chelsea FC 2–2 Hull City AFC — model lean: the draw (48%) ✅
• AFC Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford FC — model lean: Brentford FC (60%) ❌
• Aston Villa FC 1–2 Nottingham Forest FC — model lean: the draw (75%) ❌
• Crystal Palace FC 2–3 Ipswich Town FC — model lean: the draw (76%) ❌
• Liverpool FC 0–0 Fulham FC — model lean: Liverpool FC (82%) ❌
• Tottenham Hotspur FC 0–0 Everton FC — model lean: Everton FC (74%) ❌
• Sunderland AFC 0–2 Arsenal FC — model lean: Arsenal FC (77%) ✅
• Coventry City FC 0–5 Brighton & Hove Albion FC — model lean: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (66%) ✅
• Manchester United FC 0–1 Manchester City FC — model lean: Manchester City FC (66%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Crystal Palace FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Ipswich Town FC +0.50: ✅ Won (+1.09u, CLV +10.5pp)
• Crystal Palace FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-0.61u, CLV +8.3pp)
• Liverpool FC vs Fulham FC — Liverpool FC -1.25: ❌ Lost (-0.56u, CLV -3.4pp)
• Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Everton FC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+1.49u, CLV +10.1pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.