Premier League Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Premier League weekend (Sep 18–21, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 10 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Premier League hub.

• Brentford FC 3–0 Chelsea FC — model lean: the draw (52%) ❌
• Tottenham Hotspur FC 2–3 Aston Villa FC — model lean: the draw (59%) ❌
• Newcastle United FC 2–1 Hull City AFC — model lean: the draw (53%) ❌
• Everton FC 1–0 Ipswich Town FC — model lean: Everton FC (54%) ✅
• Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3–0 Arsenal FC — model lean: Arsenal FC (64%) ❌
• Nottingham Forest FC 0–1 Coventry City FC — model lean: Nottingham Forest FC (57%) ❌
• Leeds United FC 0–0 Crystal Palace FC — model lean: Leeds United FC (58%) ❌
• AFC Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool FC — model lean: Liverpool FC (55%) ✅
• Manchester City FC 5–3 Sunderland AFC — model lean: Manchester City FC (80%) ✅
• Fulham FC 1–1 Manchester United FC — model lean: the draw (67%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Brentford FC vs Chelsea FC — Chelsea FC +0: ❌ Lost (-1.56u, CLV +2.6pp)
• Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Aston Villa FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.80u, CLV +12.7pp)
• Everton FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+0.84u, CLV +11.7pp)
• Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Arsenal FC — Arsenal FC +0: ❌ Lost (-3.09u, CLV +4.4pp)
• Nottingham Forest FC vs Coventry City FC — Nottingham Forest FC -1.00: ❌ Lost (-1.09u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Leeds United FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Leeds United FC to win: ❌ Lost (-1.51u, CLV +3.5pp)
• Leeds United FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+1.96u, CLV +11.3pp)
• Manchester City FC vs Sunderland AFC — Manchester City FC to win: ✅ Won (+1.87u, CLV +2.2pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 10 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.