Primeira Liga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Primeira Liga weekend (Sep 18–21, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 3 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Primeira Liga hub.

• Gil Vicente FC 1–1 CS Marítimo — model lean: the draw (48%) ✅
• CD Nacional 0–4 FC Famalicão — model lean: the draw (62%) ❌
• FC Alverca 1–0 Rio Ave FC — model lean: the draw (64%) ❌
• Sporting Clube de Portugal 2–2 FC Arouca — model lean: Sporting Clube de Portugal (65%) ❌
• CF Estrela da Amadora 0–2 Académico de Viseu FC — model lean: CF Estrela da Amadora (44%) ❌
• Vitória SC 1–1 Moreirense FC — model lean: the draw (51%) ✅
• CD Santa Clara 0–0 Sporting Clube de Braga — model lean: CD Santa Clara (55%) ❌
• GD Estoril Praia 1–2 Casa Pia AC — model lean: the draw (44%) ❌
• FC Porto 3–1 Sport Lisboa e Benfica — model lean: FC Porto (45%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• GD Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia AC — GD Estoril Praia +0: ❌ Lost (-3.04u, CLV +3.0pp)
• FC Porto vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica — FC Porto +0: ✅ Won (+1.11u, CLV +0.9pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.