Serie A Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Serie A weekend (Sep 11–14, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 0 of 7 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Serie A hub.

• Venezia FC 2–4 ACF Fiorentina — model lean: the draw (58%) ❌
• Genoa CFC 1–1 Frosinone Calcio — model lean: Frosinone Calcio (58%) ❌
• SS Lazio 2–2 AC Milan — model lean: SS Lazio (54%) ❌
• Atalanta BC 1–2 Cagliari Calcio — model lean: Atalanta BC (49%) ❌
• US Lecce 3–2 AC Monza — model lean: the draw (56%) ❌
• SSC Napoli 1–0 Bologna FC 1909 — model lean: the draw (58%) ❌
• US Sassuolo Calcio 3–2 Juventus FC — model lean: the draw (49%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Venezia FC vs ACF Fiorentina — Venezia FC to win: ❌ Lost (-0.71u, CLV +6.1pp)
• US Sassuolo Calcio vs Juventus FC — Juventus FC +0: ❌ Lost (-3.67u, CLV +3.1pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 7 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.