Value Bet Results — 2026-08-07: 6-8, +0.4 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-08-07 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 6-8 across 17 bets, +0.4 units, average CLV +2.0pp.

Football

• SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs SBV Excelsior — Under2.75: ❌ Lost (-1.41u, CLV -0.5pp)
• GD Estoril Praia vs FC Famalicão — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+1.66u, CLV +0.0pp)

Tennis

• Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alex Michelsen — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.34u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi — Under 22.5: ❌ Lost (-1.25u, CLV +5.2pp)
• Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi — Tallon Griekspoor: ✅ Won (+1.83u, CLV +13.4pp)
• Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Zizou Bergs vs Ben Shelton — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV -3.3pp)
• Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +3.5pp)
• Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik — Jakub Mensik: ✅ Won (+2.30u, CLV -2.7pp)
• Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca — Casper Ruud: ❌ Lost (-1.73u, CLV +2.3pp)
• Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Alexei Popyrin: ❌ Lost (-1.43u, CLV +10.2pp)
• Caty Mcnally vs Alexandra Eala — Caty Mcnally: ❌ Lost (-0.79u, CLV -1.3pp)

Baseball

• Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — Over 8.5: ✅ Won (+2.23u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels: ✅ Won (+1.67u, CLV +3.5pp)
• Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — Cleveland Guardians: ✅ Won (+1.65u, CLV +0.6pp)
• San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros — Houston Astros: ❌ Lost (-2.21u, CLV -3.1pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers: ❌ Lost (-0.77u, CLV +9.4pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.