Value Bet Results — 2026-08-18: 3-6, -7.0 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-08-18 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 3-6 across 15 bets, -7.0 units, average CLV +3.1pp.

Tennis

• Joao Fonseca vs Christopher Oconnell — Under 21.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +6.2pp)
• Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges — Andrey Rublev: ❌ Lost (-2.45u, CLV +1.3pp)
• Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Michael Zheng vs Lorenzo Musetti — Michael Zheng: ❌ Lost (-0.82u, CLV -4.1pp)
• Marta Kostyuk vs Sloane Stephens — Under 18.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +8.2pp)
• Jaime Faria vs Adam Walton — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Sara Bejlek vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Under 21.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Aryna Sabalenka vs Xin Yu Wang — Aryna Sabalenka: ✅ Won (+0.80u, CLV +7.4pp)
• Aryna Sabalenka vs Xin Yu Wang — Over 19.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV -1.4pp)
• Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoe — Learner Tien: ❌ Lost (-2.24u, CLV +1.6pp)

Baseball

• Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees — New York Yankees: ❌ Lost (-1.46u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — Miami Marlins +1.5: ❌ Lost (-2.51u, CLV +1.1pp)
• Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants — Cleveland Guardians -1.5: ✅ Won (+1.57u, CLV +5.1pp)
• Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays: ✅ Won (+1.42u, CLV +3.6pp)
• Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners: ❌ Lost (-1.32u, CLV +2.0pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.