Value Bet Results — 2026-08-19: 6-13, -17.8 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-08-19 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 6-13 across 23 bets, -17.8 units, average CLV +2.2pp.

Football

• Club Atlético de Madrid vs Málaga CF — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.12u, CLV +0.0pp)

Tennis

• Iga Swiatek vs Diane Parry — Over 17.5: ✅ Won (+1.66u, CLV -4.4pp)
• Sorana Cirstea vs Jessica Pegula — Jessica Pegula: ✅ Won (+2.20u, CLV +10.8pp)
• Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik — Under 22.5: ❌ Lost (-1.89u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik — Jakub Mensik: ❌ Lost (-2.74u, CLV -2.0pp)
• Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.39u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva — Mirra Andreeva: ❌ Lost (-2.63u, CLV +4.7pp)
• Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul — Tommy Paul: ✅ Won (+2.06u, CLV -4.3pp)
• Arthur Fils vs Alex De Minaur — Under 22.0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Nuno Borges vs Brandon Nakashima — Under 23.0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Madison Keys vs Xiyu Wang — Madison Keys: ✅ Won (+0.71u, CLV +3.1pp)
• Taylor Fritz vs Christopher Oconnell — Under 20.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +6.2pp)
• Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek — Aryna Sabalenka: ❌ Lost (-5.00u, CLV +4.5pp)

Baseball

• Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers: ❌ Lost (-1.42u, CLV -2.5pp)
• Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers — Over 8.5: ❌ Lost (-1.81u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox — Chicago White Sox: ✅ Won (+1.79u, CLV +0.9pp)
• Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — Miami Marlins: ✅ Won (+1.34u, CLV +6.4pp)
• Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees — Over 9.5: ❌ Lost (-1.93u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants — Over 7.5: ❌ Lost (-2.44u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays — Tampa Bay Rays -1.5: ❌ Lost (-1.15u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Kansas City Royals vs Athletics — Athletics: ❌ Lost (-1.60u, CLV -7.5pp)
• Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 11.5: ❌ Lost (-1.45u, CLV +0.5pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.