Value Bet Results — 2026-09-13: 16-17, -5.5 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-09-13 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 16-17 across 33 bets, -5.5 units, average CLV +3.5pp.

Football

• Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus — Energie Cottbus +0.50: ✅ Won (+1.64u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Lille OSC vs ES Troyes AC — Lille OSC +0: ✅ Won (+0.88u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Lille OSC vs ES Troyes AC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+2.59u, CLV +16.8pp)
• RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV — Under3.5: ❌ Lost (-2.42u, CLV +16.8pp)
• RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV — RB Leipzig +0: ✅ Won (+0.92u, CLV +3.1pp)
• Levante UD vs FC Barcelona — Under3.5: ❌ Lost (-1.61u, CLV +13.9pp)
• PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Rotterdam — PEC Zwolle +1.25: ❌ Lost (-1.44u, CLV +3.6pp)
• PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Rotterdam — Feyenoord Rotterdam +0: ✅ Won (+1.22u, CLV +7.0pp)
• SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Bayern München — Under4.5: ✅ Won (+0.98u, CLV +14.9pp)
• FC Arouca vs CD Santa Clara — FC Arouca +0: ❌ Lost (-1.65u, CLV +4.7pp)
• US Sassuolo Calcio vs Juventus FC — Juventus FC +0: ❌ Lost (-3.67u, CLV +3.1pp)

Baseball

• Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies — Under 8.5: ❌ Lost (-1.93u, CLV +3.9pp)
• Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies: ❌ Lost (-1.13u, CLV -8.1pp)
• Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies — Under 9.0: ❌ Lost (-2.69u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals: ❌ Lost (-1.35u, CLV -3.3pp)
• Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels: ✅ Won (+1.94u, CLV +4.0pp)
• Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels — Over 9.5: ✅ Won (+1.70u, CLV +3.5pp)
• Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros — Houston Astros: ❌ Lost (-2.07u, CLV +3.3pp)
• Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 8.5: ✅ Won (+1.48u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros — Under 7.5: ❌ Lost (-1.30u, CLV +1.5pp)
• St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox — Chicago White Sox: ✅ Won (+2.27u, CLV +7.3pp)
• Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Pittsburgh Pirates: ✅ Won (+1.77u, CLV -3.6pp)
• Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers — Under 8.0: ❌ Lost (-2.22u, CLV -0.5pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres — Over 7.5: ✅ Won (+1.64u, CLV +3.1pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres — San Diego Padres: ✅ Won (+1.51u, CLV +5.2pp)

7

• Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons — Atlanta Falcons +6.5: ❌ Lost (-1.88u)
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns — Over 40.5: ✅ Won (+2.65u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals — Los Angeles Chargers -9.5: ❌ Lost (-2.19u)
• Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals — Under 47.0: ✅ Won (+2.54u, CLV +3.7pp)
• Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers — Green Bay Packers +1.0: ❌ Lost (-2.06u)
• New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys — Under 47.5: ❌ Lost (-2.34u, CLV -0.5pp)
• New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys — Dallas Cowboys: ❌ Lost (-0.56u, CLV -28.5pp)
• New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys — New York Giants +3.0: ✅ Won (+1.29u)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.