Value Bet Results — 2026-09-19: 9-18, -19.6 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-09-19 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 9-18 across 28 bets, -19.6 units, average CLV +6.6pp.

Football

• 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 1. FC Kaiserslautern -0.50: ✅ Won (+0.83u, CLV -6.3pp)
• Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Aston Villa FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.80u, CLV +12.7pp)
• Millwall FC vs West Ham United FC — West Ham United FC -0.75: ❌ Lost (-2.01u, CLV +0.0pp)
• TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II vs SV Meppen — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II to win: ✅ Won (+1.03u, CLV +14.0pp)
• Bologna FC 1909 vs Torino FC — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-0.66u, CLV +8.2pp)
• SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg — Over3.5: ✅ Won (+0.97u, CLV +9.4pp)
• Everton FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+0.84u, CLV +11.7pp)
• Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Arsenal FC — Arsenal FC +0: ❌ Lost (-3.09u, CLV +4.4pp)
• ADO Den Haag vs SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +8.3pp)
• Nottingham Forest FC vs Coventry City FC — Nottingham Forest FC -1.00: ❌ Lost (-1.09u, CLV +0.0pp)
• RC Celta de Vigo vs Real Racing Club de Santander — Over3.0: ✅ Won (+1.12u, CLV +8.5pp)
• Venezia FC vs SS Lazio — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+1.24u, CLV +9.9pp)
• Toulouse FC vs Le Havre AC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.69u, CLV +15.8pp)
• Sevilla FC vs FC Barcelona — Under3.5: ❌ Lost (-0.89u, CLV +19.7pp)

Baseball

• New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies: ❌ Lost (-1.23u, CLV +1.4pp)
• Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals — Under 7.5: ❌ Lost (-1.61u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers: ❌ Lost (-2.20u, CLV +16.6pp)
• St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals: ✅ Won (+1.02u, CLV +11.9pp)
• St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals — Under 8.5: ❌ Lost (-1.75u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees — New York Yankees: ❌ Lost (-0.73u, CLV +3.0pp)
• San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins — Miami Marlins: ❌ Lost (-1.72u, CLV +3.8pp)

8

• Penn State vs Buffalo — Buffalo +41.0: ❌ Lost (-2.10u)
• Arkansas vs Georgia — Over 55.0: ✅ Won (+1.36u, CLV +2.1pp)
• Ohio State vs Kent State — Over 59.0: ✅ Won (+1.29u, CLV +7.5pp)
• Minnesota vs Akron — Akron +22.5: ❌ Lost (-1.46u)
• Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan — Eastern Michigan +23.5: ❌ Lost (-2.09u)
• Central Michigan vs Wyoming — Over 39.0: ❌ Lost (-1.67u, CLV +0.0pp)

9

• Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski — Iwo Baraniewski: ❌ Lost (-1.47u, CLV +5.1pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.