Value Bet Results — 2026-09-20: 14-20, -12.0 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-09-20 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 14-20 across 34 bets, -12.0 units, average CLV +1.7pp.

Football

• Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli — Energie Cottbus to win: ❌ Lost (-0.91u, CLV -1.8pp)
• AZ vs Telstar 1963 — AZ +0: ✅ Won (+0.74u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Leeds United FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+1.96u, CLV +11.3pp)
• Leeds United FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Leeds United FC to win: ❌ Lost (-1.51u, CLV +3.5pp)
• Manchester City FC vs Sunderland AFC — Manchester City FC to win: ✅ Won (+1.87u, CLV +2.2pp)
• Club Atlético de Madrid vs Real Madrid CF — Club Atlético de Madrid +0: ✅ Won (+1.77u, CLV -4.4pp)
• Juventus FC vs Atalanta BC — Atalanta BC +1.00: ❌ Lost (-1.68u, CLV +0.6pp)
• RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Real Betis Balompié — Real Betis Balompié to win: ❌ Lost (-1.37u, CLV +6.7pp)
• GD Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia AC — GD Estoril Praia +0: ❌ Lost (-3.04u, CLV +3.0pp)
• AC Milan vs US Lecce — US Lecce +1.75: ❌ Lost (-1.80u, CLV -4.0pp)
• AC Milan vs US Lecce — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.55u, CLV +22.8pp)
• FC Porto vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica — FC Porto +0: ✅ Won (+1.11u, CLV +0.9pp)

Baseball

• Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — Over 7.5: ❌ Lost (-1.55u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics — Under 6.5: ✅ Won (+1.56u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — Chicago Cubs: ✅ Won (+0.51u, CLV +4.3pp)
• St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals: ❌ Lost (-1.16u, CLV +2.4pp)
• Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins — Minnesota Twins: ❌ Lost (-2.05u, CLV +2.5pp)
• San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins — Miami Marlins: ✅ Won (+1.71u, CLV +4.7pp)
• Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees — New York Yankees: ❌ Lost (-1.40u, CLV -9.0pp)
• Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants — Over 8.5: ❌ Lost (-1.16u, CLV +1.5pp)

7

• New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers — Under 44.0: ✅ Won (+1.94u, CLV +9.6pp)
• Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings — Minnesota Vikings +5.5: ✅ Won (+0.56u)
• Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings — Minnesota Vikings: ✅ Won (+1.22u, CLV +12.8pp)
• Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals — Houston Texans -3.0: ❌ Lost (-1.51u)
• New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers — Pittsburgh Steelers: ❌ Lost (-0.55u, CLV -41.2pp)
• New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers — Over 41.5: ❌ Lost (-2.39u, CLV +0.0pp)
• New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers — Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5: ❌ Lost (-1.27u)
• Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles — Over 40.0: ✅ Won (+3.16u, CLV -2.0pp)
• Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers — Carolina Panthers: ❌ Lost (-0.92u, CLV -29.7pp)
• San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins — Over 45.5: ✅ Won (+3.17u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders — Under 51.0: ❌ Lost (-1.30u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks — Over 41.5: ❌ Lost (-3.78u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts — Indianapolis Colts +6.0: ✅ Won (+2.00u)
• Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts — Under 46.0: ❌ Lost (-3.38u, CLV +4.3pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.