Championship Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 21–24, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Championship weekend (Aug 21–24, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 6 of 12 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Championship hub.

• Birmingham City FC 2–2 Bristol City FC — model lean: the draw (66%) ✅
• Millwall FC 3–0 Norwich City FC — model lean: Millwall FC (98%) ✅
• Lincoln City FC 1–3 Portsmouth FC — model lean: the draw (74%) ❌
• West Ham United FC 1–2 Charlton Athletic FC — model lean: Charlton Athletic FC (67%) ✅
• Derby County FC 2–2 Cardiff City FC — model lean: the draw (64%) ✅
• Preston North End FC 1–3 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — model lean: the draw (67%) ❌
• Wrexham AFC 1–1 Watford FC — model lean: Watford FC (94%) ❌
• Blackburn Rovers FC 2–1 Middlesbrough FC — model lean: Middlesbrough FC (72%) ❌
• Swansea City AFC 0–0 Sheffield United FC — model lean: Swansea City AFC (76%) ❌
• Southampton FC 3–1 Stoke City FC — model lean: the draw (71%) ❌
• Queens Park Rangers FC 0–0 Bolton Wanderers FC — model lean: the draw (45%) ✅
• West Bromwich Albion FC 3–1 Burnley FC — model lean: West Bromwich Albion FC (63%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Preston North End FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — Preston North End FC +0.50: ❌ Lost (-1.28u, CLV +10.9pp)
• Blackburn Rovers FC vs Middlesbrough FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.16u, CLV -8.4pp)
• Southampton FC vs Stoke City FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-3.04u, CLV +0.9pp)
• West Bromwich Albion FC vs Burnley FC — the draw: ❌ Lost (-0.59u, CLV +3.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 12 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.