Serie A Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 21–24, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Serie A weekend (Aug 21–24, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 6 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Serie A hub.

• FC Internazionale Milano 4–1 AC Monza — model lean: FC Internazionale Milano (73%) ✅
• Udinese Calcio 1–1 Como 1907 — model lean: the draw (48%) ✅
• Parma Calcio 1913 0–1 Cagliari Calcio — model lean: the draw (43%) ❌
• Genoa CFC 0–2 SSC Napoli — model lean: SSC Napoli (61%) ✅
• Venezia FC 0–2 US Lecce — model lean: Venezia FC (43%) ❌
• Frosinone Calcio 0–1 Juventus FC — model lean: Juventus FC (51%) ✅
• Atalanta BC 2–1 US Sassuolo Calcio — model lean: Atalanta BC (55%) ✅
• Torino FC 1–2 AC Milan — model lean: AC Milan (40%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Internazionale Milano vs AC Monza — Under2.75: ❌ Lost (-1.61u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Udinese Calcio vs Como 1907 — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.48u, CLV +8.7pp)
• Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari Calcio — Parma Calcio 1913 to win: ❌ Lost (-1.28u, CLV -8.7pp)
• Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari Calcio — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.55u, CLV -9.2pp)
• Venezia FC vs US Lecce — the draw: ❌ Lost (-1.02u, CLV -4.2pp)
• Frosinone Calcio vs Juventus FC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+4.47u, CLV +18.0pp)
• Torino FC vs AC Milan — Over2.25: ✅ Won (+1.80u, CLV -7.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.