Ligue 1 Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 21–24, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Ligue 1 weekend (Aug 21–24, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 6 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Ligue 1 hub.

• Olympique de Marseille 4–0 RC Strasbourg Alsace — model lean: Olympique de Marseille (44%) ✅
• Racing Club de Lens 5–2 AJ Auxerre — model lean: Racing Club de Lens (48%) ✅
• OGC Nice 0–0 FC Lorient — model lean: the draw (38%) ✅
• ES Troyes AC 0–0 Paris FC — model lean: the draw (46%) ✅
• Le Mans FC 2–2 Stade Brestois 29 — model lean: Le Mans FC (41%) ❌
• Toulouse FC 0–2 Olympique Lyonnais — model lean: Toulouse FC (50%) ❌
• Angers SCO 0–3 Lille OSC — model lean: Lille OSC (55%) ✅
• Le Havre AC 0–1 AS Monaco FC — model lean: AS Monaco FC (54%) ✅
• Paris Saint-Germain FC 2–2 Stade Rennais FC 1901 — model lean: Paris Saint-Germain FC (75%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• OGC Nice vs FC Lorient — FC Lorient to win: ❌ Lost (-1.02u, CLV +11.5pp)
• OGC Nice vs FC Lorient — Under2.75: ✅ Won (+1.92u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Angers SCO vs Lille OSC — Lille OSC +0: ✅ Won (+1.85u, CLV -1.2pp)
• Le Havre AC vs AS Monaco FC — AS Monaco FC to win: ✅ Won (+1.60u, CLV -3.9pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.