Eredivisie Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 21–24, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Eredivisie weekend (Aug 21–24, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 3 of 6 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Eredivisie hub.

• Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AZ — model lean: AZ (49%) ✅
• Sparta Rotterdam 3–3 FC Utrecht — model lean: Sparta Rotterdam (84%) ❌
• SC Heerenveen 0–2 PEC Zwolle — model lean: SC Heerenveen (84%) ❌
• Go Ahead Eagles 3–1 ADO Den Haag — model lean: Go Ahead Eagles (75%) ✅
• PSV 5–1 FC Groningen — model lean: FC Groningen (44%) ❌
• SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2–5 Feyenoord Rotterdam — model lean: Feyenoord Rotterdam (57%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Go Ahead Eagles vs ADO Den Haag — Under3.0: ❌ Lost (-1.83u, CLV -0.5pp)
• SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs Feyenoord Rotterdam — Under3.0: ❌ Lost (-2.40u, CLV +0.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 6 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.