Primeira Liga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 21–24, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Primeira Liga weekend (Aug 21–24, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 3 of 6 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Primeira Liga hub.

• CS Marítimo 2–2 Académico de Viseu FC — model lean: CS Marítimo (82%) ❌
• GD Estoril Praia 0–2 Rio Ave FC — model lean: the draw (67%) ❌
• Sporting Clube de Portugal 3–1 FC Alverca — model lean: Sporting Clube de Portugal (62%) ✅
• Vitória SC 1–0 CD Nacional — model lean: CD Nacional (53%) ❌
• CD Santa Clara 1–0 FC Famalicão — model lean: CD Santa Clara (69%) ✅
• FC Porto 2–0 FC Arouca — model lean: FC Porto (56%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• CS Marítimo vs Académico de Viseu FC — CS Marítimo -0.25: ½ won (+0.70u, CLV +0.6pp)
• GD Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave FC — Rio Ave FC +0.25: ✅ Won (+1.30u, CLV +1.9pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 6 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.