Premier League Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 21–24, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Premier League weekend (Aug 21–24, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Premier League hub.

• Arsenal FC 3–0 Coventry City FC — model lean: Arsenal FC (77%) ✅
• Hull City AFC 2–0 Manchester United FC — model lean: Manchester United FC (59%) ❌
• Everton FC 2–0 Crystal Palace FC — model lean: Everton FC (61%) ✅
• Ipswich Town FC 2–1 Sunderland AFC — model lean: the draw (39%) ❌
• Nottingham Forest FC 0–1 Leeds United FC — model lean: the draw (46%) ❌
• Brentford FC 3–0 Tottenham Hotspur FC — model lean: Brentford FC (58%) ✅
• Manchester City FC 2–1 AFC Bournemouth — model lean: Manchester City FC (56%) ✅
• Brighton & Hove Albion FC 4–0 Aston Villa FC — model lean: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (36%) ✅
• Newcastle United FC 2–2 Liverpool FC — model lean: Liverpool FC (65%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Arsenal FC vs Coventry City FC — Under3.0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV -1.6pp)
• Hull City AFC vs Manchester United FC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+4.37u, CLV -4.5pp)
• Everton FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Everton FC -0.25: ✅ Won (+1.81u, CLV -4.0pp)
• Ipswich Town FC vs Sunderland AFC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.29u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Nottingham Forest FC vs Leeds United FC — Nottingham Forest FC +0: ❌ Lost (-2.04u, CLV -3.5pp)
• Nottingham Forest FC vs Leeds United FC — Over2.25: ❌ Lost (-1.89u, CLV -4.6pp)
• Manchester City FC vs AFC Bournemouth — Manchester City FC +0: ✅ Won (+1.46u, CLV +5.3pp)
• Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Aston Villa FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.82u, CLV +10.1pp)
• Newcastle United FC vs Liverpool FC — Liverpool FC -0.50: ❌ Lost (-2.13u, CLV -1.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.