Value Bet Results — 2026-08-16: 12-15, -2.6 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-08-16 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 12-15 across 34 bets, -2.6 units, average CLV +1.3pp.

Football

• Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 — Under3.0: ✅ Won (+1.30u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Watford FC vs Southampton FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.13u, CLV +1.9pp)
• Burnley FC vs West Ham United FC — Burnley FC +0.25: ½ won (+0.97u, CLV +3.7pp)
• Real Racing Club de Santander vs Villarreal CF — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-3.28u, CLV +9.3pp)
• VfB Stuttgart II vs Viktoria Köln — Under3.0: ❌ Lost (-1.38u, CLV -2.3pp)

Tennis

• Janice Tjen vs Viktorija Golubic — Under 21.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Christopher Oconnell vs Casper Ruud — Under 21.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Xin Yu Wang vs Donna Vekic — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.30u, CLV +8.5pp)
• Xin Yu Wang vs Donna Vekic — Donna Vekic: ❌ Lost (-1.71u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Daria Snigur vs Madison Keys — Madison Keys: ✅ Won (+1.95u, CLV -2.8pp)
• Arthur Rinderknech vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Felix Auger Aliassime — Felix Auger Aliassime: ✅ Won (+1.99u, CLV +4.1pp)
• Daniel Altmaier vs Lorenzo Musetti — Under 20.5: ✅ Won (+2.30u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen — Taylor Fritz: ✅ Won (+2.64u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Shuai Zhang vs Ann Li — Under 20.5: ❌ Lost (-1.86u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Brandon Nakashima vs Aleksandar Kovacevic — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Aryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibson — Aryna Sabalenka: ✅ Won (+0.65u, CLV -0.9pp)
• Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Pablo Carreno Busta: ❌ Lost (-1.68u, CLV -1.4pp)
• Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: ❌ Lost (-0.58u, CLV +6.4pp)
• Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Zizou Bergs — Zizou Bergs: ❌ Lost (-1.48u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Zizou Bergs — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Tamara Korpatsch vs Iva Jovic — Over 18.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +6.0pp)
• Ben Shelton vs Jaime Faria — Under 21.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV -1.8pp)
• Coco Gauff vs Liudmila Samsonova — Coco Gauff: ✅ Won (+1.65u, CLV +2.3pp)
• Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances Tiafoe — Lorenzo Sonego: ❌ Lost (-0.81u, CLV +5.2pp)
• Tereza Valentova vs Elina Svitolina — Elina Svitolina: ✅ Won (+1.75u, CLV +0.0pp)

Baseball

• Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox — Boston Red Sox: ❌ Lost (-1.39u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees — New York Yankees: ❌ Lost (-1.80u, CLV +2.2pp)
• New York Mets vs Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals: ❌ Lost (-1.07u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins — Under 9.0: ✅ Won (+2.73u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies — Under 9.0: ❌ Lost (-1.51u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies: ✅ Won (+1.40u, CLV +0.5pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies: ❌ Lost (-1.56u, CLV +1.1pp)
• Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals: ✅ Won (+1.58u, CLV +1.1pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.