Tight end is the most top-heavy position in fantasy: a handful of every-week difference-makers, then a wasteland of touchdown-dependent dart throws. That shape makes value over replacement (VOR) spike for the elite tier — a top TE beats the streaming pool by more than most 'higher-scoring' players at other positions beat theirs — and collapse fast right after it. The classic draft decision follows directly from the table below: pay up for one of the few elites while their tier lasts, or punt the position entirely and stream matchups off the wire.
Players our board ranks meaningfully higher than the market drafts them — the gap between VOR-based rank and public ADP is where draft value lives.
Tier breaks (T2, T3, …) mark real drop-offs in projected value — players inside a tier are close; between tiers the gap is big enough to change your pick.
| # | Player | Team | Proj pts | VOR | TD% | ADP | ’25 finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T1Trey McBride | ARI | 267 | 116 | 36% | 28.9 | TE1 |
| 2 | Kyle Pitts | ATL | 222 | 72 | 29% | 86.8 | TE2 |
| 3 | Travis Kelce | KC | 210 | 60 | 30% | 101.2 | TE3 |
| 4 | Colston Loveland | CHI | 207 | 56 | 29% | 45.8 | TE12 |
| 5 | T2Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | 204 | 53 | 33% | 68.9 | TE6 |
| 6 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | 193 | 42 | 31% | 120.8 | TE7 |
| 7 | Tyler Warren | IND | 177 | 26 | 25% | 54.7 | TE5 |
| 8 | Mark Andrews | BAL | 171 | 21 | 26% | 127.7 | TE17 |
| 9 | T3George Kittle | SF | 166 | 16 | 31% | 106.1 | TE13 |
| 10 | Brock Bowers | LV | 166 | 16 | 31% | 36.2 | TE11 |
| 11 | Juwan Johnson | NO | 163 | 12 | 22% | 138.8 | TE8 |
| 12 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | 161 | 11 | 21% | 169.6 | TE10 |
| 13 | T4Zach Ertz | WAS | 159 | 9 | 29% | — | TE20 |
| 14 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | 151 | 0 | 23% | 150.5 | TE26 |
| 15 | Chig Okonkwo | TEN | 149 | -1 | 21% | 166.8 | TE21 |
| 16 | Hunter Henry | NE | 147 | -4 | 23% | 157.6 | TE9 |
| 17 | T5Theo Johnson | NYG | 142 | -8 | 23% | — | TE18 |
| 18 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | 137 | -14 | 21% | 116.7 | TE4 |
| 19 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 130 | -21 | 22% | — | TE25 |
| 20 | Oronde Gadsden II | LAC | 130 | -21 | 21% | 162.9 | TE15 |
| 21 | T6Gunnar Helm | TEN | 121 | -29 | 19% | — | TE31 |
| 22 | Colby Parkinson | LA | 116 | -34 | 19% | — | TE16 |
| 23 | Evan Engram | DEN | 114 | -36 | 17% | — | TE28 |
| 24 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 113 | -38 | 21% | 133.7 | TE19 |
| 25 | T7Dawson Knox | BUF | 112 | -39 | 20% | — | TE29 |
| 26 | Cade Otton | TB | 110 | -41 | 18% | — | TE22 |
| 27 | Brenton Strange | JAX | 109 | -42 | 22% | 157.9 | TE23 |
| 28 | AJ Barner | SEA | 105 | -45 | 21% | 174.8 | TE14 |
| 29 | T8Mason Taylor | NYJ | 103 | -48 | 20% | — | TE33 |
| 30 | Sam LaPorta | DET | 101 | -49 | 31% | 69.8 | TE27 |
| 31 | Isaiah Likely | BAL | 92 | -59 | 23% | 139.2 | TE44 |
| 32 | Jonnu Smith | PIT | 89 | -61 | 15% | — | TE35 |
| 33 | T9Cole Kmet | CHI | 87 | -63 | 15% | — | TE37 |
| 34 | Tucker Kraft | GB | 85 | -65 | 31% | 73.1 | TE24 |
| 35 | Michael Mayer | LV | 85 | -66 | 18% | — | TE38 |
| 36 | Luke Musgrave | GB | 84 | -67 | 12% | — | TE53 |
| 37 | T10Tyler Higbee | LA | 83 | -67 | 15% | — | TE40 |
| 38 | Mike Gesicki | CIN | 83 | -67 | 19% | — | TE41 |
| 39 | Darren Waller | MIA | 81 | -70 | 24% | — | TE32 |
| 40 | Elijah Higgins | ARI | 81 | -70 | 11% | — | TE46 |
| 41 | T11Davis Allen | LA | 79 | -72 | 15% | — | TE45 |
| 42 | Tommy Tremble | CAR | 76 | -75 | 17% | — | TE43 |
| 43 | David Njoku | CLE | 71 | -79 | 23% | — | TE34 |
| 44 | Greg Dulcich | MIA | 71 | -79 | 19% | — | TE42 |
| 45 | T12Taysom Hill | NO | 71 | -80 | 18% | — | TE58 |
| 46 | Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | 70 | -80 | 12% | — | TE56 |
| 47 | Austin Hooper | NE | 69 | -82 | 14% | — | TE48 |
| 48 | Darnell Washington | PIT | 69 | -82 | 12% | — | TE39 |
| 49 | T13Jake Tonges | SF | 65 | -85 | 30% | — | TE30 |
| 50 | Noah Fant | CIN | 62 | -89 | 12% | — | TE36 |
| 51 | Mitchell Evans | CAR | 59 | -91 | 13% | — | TE54 |
| 52 | Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR | 57 | -93 | 12% | — | TE50 |
| 53 | T14Terrance Ferguson | LA | 57 | -93 | 17% | — | TE52 |
| 54 | Noah Gray | KC | 57 | -94 | 11% | — | TE60 |
| 55 | Daniel Bellinger | NYG | 56 | -94 | 14% | — | TE47 |
| 56 | Adam Trautman | DEN | 54 | -96 | 11% | — | TE57 |
| 57 | T15Josh Oliver | MIN | 51 | -100 | 16% | — | TE49 |
| 58 | Jackson Hawes | BUF | 47 | -103 | 15% | — | TE51 |
| 59 | Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | 45 | -106 | 9% | — | TE71 |
| 60 | Elijah Arroyo | SEA | 44 | -107 | 11% | — | TE59 |
| 61 | T16Drew Sample | CIN | 42 | -109 | 8% | — | TE64 |
| 62 | Mo Alie-Cox | IND | 41 | -109 | 12% | — | TE66 |
| 63 | Johnny Mundt | JAX | 41 | -110 | 9% | — | TE77 |
| 64 | Tanner Hudson | CIN | 39 | -112 | 11% | — | TE55 |
| 65 | T17John FitzPatrick | GB | 38 | -112 | 10% | — | TE72 |
| 66 | Ben Sinnott | WAS | 38 | -113 | 16% | — | TE68 |
| 67 | Brock Wright | DET | 38 | -113 | 18% | — | TE61 |
| 68 | Julian Hill | MIA | 37 | -113 | 9% | — | TE67 |
| 69 | T18Connor Heyward | PIT | 37 | -114 | 12% | — | TE69 |
| 70 | Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL | 36 | -114 | 7% | — | TE74 |
| 71 | Will Dissly | LAC | 34 | -117 | 12% | — | TE76 |
| 72 | Ian Thomas | LV | 32 | -119 | 9% | — | TE73 |
| 73 | T19Cade Stover | HOU | 32 | -119 | 9% | — | TE78 |
| 74 | Quintin Morris | JAX | 32 | -119 | 11% | — | TE80 |
| 75 | John Bates | WAS | 30 | -121 | 8% | — | TE70 |
| 76 | Hunter Long | JAX | 30 | -121 | 13% | — | TE63 |
| 77 | T20Foster Moreau | NO | 28 | -123 | 14% | — | TE87 |
| 78 | Grant Calcaterra | PHI | 28 | -123 | 8% | — | TE75 |
| 79 | Charlie Kolar | BAL | 27 | -123 | 9% | — | TE62 |
| 80 | Tanner Conner | MIA | 27 | -124 | 10% | — | TE79 |
| 81 | T21Tyler Conklin | LAC | 26 | -124 | 11% | — | TE81 |
| 82 | Charlie Woerner | ATL | 24 | -126 | 10% | — | TE88 |
| 83 | Jack Stoll | NO | 24 | -127 | 8% | — | TE83 |
| 84 | Eric Saubert | SEA | 23 | -128 | 8% | — | TE97 |
| 85 | T22Nate Adkins | DEN | 21 | -130 | 12% | — | TE82 |
| 86 | Kylen Granson | PHI | 21 | -130 | 6% | — | TE92 |
| 87 | Josh Whyle | GB | 20 | -130 | 12% | — | TE84 |
| 88 | Andrew Ogletree | IND | 20 | -130 | 10% | — | TE89 |
| 89 | T23Anthony Firkser | DET | 19 | -132 | 11% | — | TE85 |
| 90 | David Martin-Robinson | TEN | 18 | -132 | 7% | — | TE86 |
| 91 | Stone Smartt | NYJ | 18 | -132 | 8% | — | TE90 |
| 92 | Luke Farrell | SF | 18 | -133 | 6% | — | TE65 |
| 93 | T24Harrison Bryant | HOU | 16 | -134 | 10% | — | TE111 |
| 94 | Durham Smythe | CHI | 16 | -135 | 6% | — | TE98 |
| 95 | Blake Whiteheart | CLE | 16 | -135 | 7% | — | TE114 |
| 96 | Colson Yankoff | WAS | 15 | -135 | 7% | — | TE104 |
| 97 | T25Feleipe Franks | ATL | 15 | -136 | 8% | — | TE124 |
| 98 | Cameron Latu | PHI | 14 | -136 | 8% | — | TE127 |
| 99 | Payne Durham | TB | 14 | -136 | 9% | — | TE115 |
| 100 | Brenden Bates | CLE | 13 | -137 | 8% | — | TE93 |
| 101 | T26Tucker Fisk | LAC | 13 | -138 | 7% | — | TE103 |
| 102 | Devin Culp | TB | 13 | -138 | 9% | — | TE95 |
| 103 | Ross Dwelley | DET | 12 | -138 | 11% | — | TE112 |
| 104 | Josiah Deguara | ARI | 12 | -138 | 7% | — | TE91 |
| 105 | T27Jelani Woods | NYJ | 11 | -139 | 16% | — | TE118 |
| 106 | Tip Reiman | ARI | 10 | -140 | 10% | — | TE102 |
| 107 | Ben Yurosek | MIN | 10 | -141 | 6% | — | TE107 |
| 108 | James Mitchell | CAR | 9 | -141 | 8% | — | TE100 |
| 109 | T28Pharaoh Brown | ARI | 9 | -142 | 7% | — | TE116 |
| 110 | Brayden Willis | SF | 9 | -142 | 9% | — | TE131 |
| 111 | Ben Sims | MIN | 8 | -142 | 9% | — | TE99 |
| 112 | Jack Westover | NE | 8 | -142 | 7% | — | TE123 |
| 113 | T29Robert Tonyan | KC | 8 | -143 | 14% | — | TE122 |
| 114 | Teagan Quitoriano | ATL | 7 | -143 | 12% | — | TE128 |
| 115 | Lucas Krull | DEN | 7 | -143 | 10% | — | TE106 |
| 116 | Chris Manhertz | NYG | 7 | -144 | 7% | — | TE117 |
| 117 | T30Ko Kieft | TB | 6 | -144 | 12% | — | TE129 |
| 118 | Nick Kallerup | SEA | 6 | -145 | 7% | — | TE136 |
| 119 | Cam Grandy | CIN | 6 | -145 | 7% | — | TE110 |
| 120 | Giovanni Ricci | DET | 5 | -146 | 8% | — | TE126 |
| 121 | T31Albert Okwuegbunam | LV | 4 | -146 | 14% | — | TE94 |
| 122 | Shane Zylstra | DET | 4 | -146 | 14% | — | TE101 |
| 123 | Will Mallory | IND | 3 | -148 | 9% | — | TE113 |
| 124 | Marcedes Lewis | DEN | 3 | -148 | 12% | — | TE125 |
| TKenyon Sadiq | NYJ | — | — | — | 163.0 | — |
Data baseline from the projection models · refreshed 16 Jul 2026.
Per-game projections from prior-season form, usage and opponent strength — a data baseline, not a betting edge. Rookies without NFL production are placed by market ADP, not model-projected. For entertainment / draft research — 18+.
Both are defensible — what loses is the middle. The elite tier's VOR justifies a genuinely early pick because the weekly edge over a streamed TE is large and repeatable. Once that tier is gone, the projected gap between TE8 and TE18 is often smaller than one bench RB's upside, so spending a mid-round pick there is the worst of both worlds. Our tier breaks show exactly where the cliff is; after it, wait and stream.
Because TE scoring is the most touchdown-dependent of any position. Outside the elite target earners, most TEs project for 3–6 targets a game — the difference between a usable week and a zero is usually one red-zone throw. The TD% column (the model's anytime-TD probability) flags which TEs get real red-zone routes rather than just snaps, which is the stickiest part of their role year over year.
Playing the position week to week off the waiver wire instead of rostering one starter: each week you pick the available TE with the best matchup — a bad opposing defense against TEs, a projected shootout, or an injury that funnels red-zone targets his way. Because replacement-level TEs are close together, a well-picked stream loses surprisingly little to a mid-tier 'set-and-forget' TE and costs you a roster spot instead of a draft pick.