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England (90.7% advance) and Croatia (78.9%) look set to go through, but Ghana (54.3%) have the pedigree to unsettle Croatia. Our 10,000-sim model breaks it all down.
Read moreFour sides all with a live advance chance — Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan and DR Congo make Group K the most unpredictable group at World Cup 2026 by our model.
Read moreArgentina (92.2% advance, highest Elo in the field) are a near-certainty to top Group J. But Algeria, Austria and Jordan are locked in a genuine three-way fight for second.
Read moreFrance (90.1% advance) and Senegal (79.5%) — the two best teams drawn together. Our 10,000-simulation model breaks down the toughest group at World Cup 2026.
Read moreSpain are the strongest group favourite in the entire tournament in our 10,000-simulation model. The big surprise: Uruguay — the highest-Elo chaser — trail Cape Verde for second place.
Read moreBelgium are strong Group G favourites in our 10,000-simulation model. The real tension is a near-dead-heat between Egypt and Iran for the second knockout spot.
Read moreThe Netherlands lead Group F comfortably in our 10,000-simulation model, but the real drama is a statistical dead heat between Japan and Sweden for the second spot.
Read moreGermany dominate Group E in our 10,000-simulation model, but Ivory Coast are a genuine title dark horse and Curaçao have a real shot at the knockouts.
Read moreUSA's 4–1 demolition of Paraguay has already reshaped Group D. Our model gives Türkiye the lowest win-group% despite a strong Elo — here's why.
Read moreBrazil are the runaway favourites in Group C with a 91.1% advance probability. Morocco chase second. Haiti and Scotland fight to avoid last place — our model's full breakdown.
Read moreNo team above 28.6% to win Group B — our model flags Switzerland as the surprise disappointment despite the highest Elo. Canada, Qatar, Bosnia are all live.
Read moreOur 10,000-simulation model gives Mexico and South Africa the inside track to advance from Group A. Here's what the numbers say — and who could spring a surprise.
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