Model predictions for Group A at the 2026 World Cup — each team's chance of winning the group, advancing to the knockout round and going deep. Free to read; the value bets for every group match are in our Football and All-Access plans.
| Team | Win group | Advance |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 35% | 79% |
| South Africa | 28% | 73% |
| South Korea | 23% | 68% |
| Czech Republic | 14% | 51% |
Group A of the 2026 World Cup features Mexico, South Africa, South Korea and Czech Republic. South Korea carry the highest Elo rating in the group.
Our model favours Mexico to top the group (35%); South Africa is also tipped to advance (73%).
Czech Republic faces the toughest path, with a 49% chance of going out in the group stage.
The top two from each group, plus the eight best third-placed teams, advance to the round of 32.
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