Model predictions for Group I at the 2026 World Cup — each team's chance of winning the group, advancing to the knockout round and going deep. Free to read; the value bets for every group match are in our Football and All-Access plans.
| Team | Win group | Advance |
|---|---|---|
| France | 51% | 90% |
| Senegal | 29% | 79% |
| Iraq | 12% | 52% |
| Norway | 8% | 43% |
Group I of the 2026 World Cup features France, Senegal, Iraq and Norway. France carry the highest Elo rating in the group.
Our model favours France to top the group (51%); Senegal is also tipped to advance (79%).
Norway faces the toughest path, with a 57% chance of going out in the group stage.
The top two from each group, plus the eight best third-placed teams, advance to the round of 32.
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