Model predictions for Group F at the 2026 World Cup — each team's chance of winning the group, advancing to the knockout round and going deep. Free to read; the value bets for every group match are in our Football and All-Access plans.
| Team | Win group | Advance |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 50% | 88% |
| Japan | 23% | 72% |
| Sweden | 18% | 65% |
| Tunisia | 8% | 41% |
Group F of the 2026 World Cup features Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia. Netherlands carry the highest Elo rating in the group.
Our model favours Netherlands to top the group (50%); Japan is also tipped to advance (72%).
Tunisia faces the toughest path, with a 59% chance of going out in the group stage.
The top two from each group, plus the eight best third-placed teams, advance to the round of 32.