Model predictions for Group G at the 2026 World Cup — each team's chance of winning the group, advancing to the knockout round and going deep. Free to read; the value bets for every group match are in our Football and All-Access plans.
| Team | Win group | Advance |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 50% | 89% |
| Egypt | 21% | 69% |
| Iran | 21% | 69% |
| New Zealand | 8% | 41% |
Group G of the 2026 World Cup features Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand. Belgium carry the highest Elo rating in the group.
Our model favours Belgium to top the group (50%); Egypt is also tipped to advance (69%).
New Zealand faces the toughest path, with a 59% chance of going out in the group stage.
The top two from each group, plus the eight best third-placed teams, advance to the round of 32.