Quarterbacks put up the biggest raw point totals in fantasy — and are still the position you can usually wait on. In 1-QB leagues only one passer starts each week, and the drop-off from QB12 to a waiver-wire replacement is the flattest in fantasy, which is why value over replacement (VOR) pushes most QBs down the overall board. The exceptions are the dual-threat outliers: rushing production is scored 2.5× per yard and adds a stable weekly floor pocket passers can't match, so an elite rushing QB can justify an early pick even at a deep position.
Players our board ranks meaningfully higher than the market drafts them — the gap between VOR-based rank and public ADP is where draft value lives.
Tier breaks (T2, T3, …) mark real drop-offs in projected value — players inside a tier are close; between tiers the gap is big enough to change your pick.
| # | Player | Team | Proj pts | VOR | ADP | ’25 finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T1Josh Allen | BUF | 385 | 141 | 27.2 | QB1 |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 318 | 75 | 82.2 | QB4 |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 304 | 60 | 97.8 | QB7 |
| 4 | T2Justin Herbert | LAC | 297 | 53 | 77.1 | QB10 |
| 5 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 293 | 50 | 112.1 | QB5 |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 285 | 42 | 62.1 | QB6 |
| 7 | T3Patrick Mahomes | KC | 285 | 42 | 71.0 | QB11 |
| 8 | Bo Nix | DEN | 283 | 40 | 125.9 | QB9 |
| 9 | Drake Maye | NE | 282 | 38 | 62.9 | QB3 |
| 10 | T4Baker Mayfield | TB | 270 | 27 | 134.0 | QB12 |
| 11 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 255 | 12 | — | QB18 |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 246 | 3 | 106.5 | QB2 |
| 13 | T5Jaxson Dart | NYG | 246 | 2 | 125.5 | QB13 |
| 14 | Jared Goff | DET | 243 | 0 | 89.7 | QB8 |
| 15 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 232 | -11 | 146.2 | QB21 |
| 16 | T6Bryce Young | CAR | 230 | -14 | — | QB19 |
| 17 | Cam Ward | TEN | 224 | -20 | — | QB22 |
| 18 | Jordan Love | GB | 221 | -23 | 132.8 | QB15 |
| 19 | T7Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 219 | -25 | — | QB16 |
| 20 | Daniel Jones | IND | 210 | -33 | — | QB17 |
| 21 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 197 | -47 | 147.0 | QB14 |
| 22 | T8Geno Smith | LV | 191 | -52 | — | QB24 |
| 23 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 188 | -56 | 57.0 | QB20 |
| 24 | Brock Purdy | SF | 187 | -57 | 102.1 | QB23 |
| 25 | T9Tyler Shough | NO | 173 | -70 | — | QB26 |
| 26 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 171 | -73 | — | QB25 |
| 27 | Joe Flacco | CIN | 159 | -85 | — | QB27 |
| 28 | T10Kirk Cousins | ATL | 146 | -98 | — | QB35 |
| 29 | J.J. McCarthy | MIN | 139 | -104 | — | QB32 |
| 30 | Marcus Mariota | WAS | 136 | -107 | — | QB31 |
| 31 | T11Justin Fields | NYJ | 132 | -111 | — | QB28 |
| 32 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 126 | -118 | — | QB33 |
| 33 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 121 | -123 | 45.3 | QB29 |
| 34 | T12Jayden Daniels | WAS | 119 | -125 | 84.5 | QB34 |
| 35 | Shedeur Sanders | CLE | 110 | -133 | — | QB37 |
| 36 | Spencer Rattler | NO | 99 | -145 | — | QB36 |
| 37 | T13Kyler Murray | ARI | 91 | -152 | 154.3 | QB38 |
| 38 | Mac Jones | SF | 82 | -162 | — | QB30 |
| 39 | Russell Wilson | NYG | 81 | -162 | — | QB44 |
| 40 | T14Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | 78 | -165 | — | QB42 |
| 41 | Davis Mills | HOU | 77 | -167 | — | QB41 |
| 42 | Carson Wentz | MIN | 73 | -171 | — | QB40 |
| 43 | T15Dillon Gabriel | CLE | 68 | -176 | — | QB39 |
| 44 | Jake Browning | CIN | 59 | -184 | — | QB45 |
| 45 | Jameis Winston | NYG | 58 | -185 | — | QB46 |
| 46 | T16Brady Cook | NYJ | 54 | -190 | — | QB52 |
| 47 | Malik Willis | GB | 44 | -199 | — | QB43 |
| 48 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | 42 | -202 | — | QB47 |
| 49 | T17Philip Rivers | IND | 42 | -202 | — | QB50 |
| 50 | Andy Dalton | CAR | 35 | -209 | — | QB58 |
| 51 | Riley Leonard | IND | 34 | -210 | — | QB48 |
| 52 | T18Quinn Ewers | MIA | 33 | -210 | — | QB49 |
| 53 | Mason Rudolph | PIT | 33 | -211 | — | QB54 |
| 54 | Max Brosmer | MIN | 30 | -213 | — | QB61 |
| 55 | T19Trey Lance | LAC | 29 | -214 | — | QB55 |
| 56 | Gardner Minshew | KC | 28 | -216 | — | QB80 |
| 57 | Kenny Pickett | LV | 27 | -216 | — | QB60 |
| 58 | T20Josh Johnson | WAS | 27 | -217 | — | QB53 |
| 59 | Joe Milton III | DAL | 26 | -217 | — | QB59 |
| 60 | Cooper Rush | BAL | 24 | -220 | — | QB64 |
| 61 | T21Tanner McKee | PHI | 23 | -220 | — | QB57 |
| 62 | Drew Lock | SEA | 20 | -223 | — | QB73 |
| 63 | Zach Wilson | MIA | 20 | -224 | — | QB70 |
| 64 | T22Joshua Dobbs | NE | 19 | -224 | — | QB67 |
| 65 | Mitchell Trubisky | BUF | 19 | -225 | — | QB51 |
| 66 | Jimmy Garoppolo | LA | 17 | -226 | — | QB81 |
| 67 | T23Chris Oladokun | KC | 17 | -227 | — | QB56 |
| 68 | Anthony Richardson | IND | 16 | -228 | — | QB69 |
| 69 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | 13 | -231 | — | QB62 |
| 70 | T24Jarrett Stidham | DEN | 12 | -231 | — | QB77 |
| 71 | Nick Mullens | JAX | 12 | -232 | — | QB75 |
| 72 | Teddy Bridgewater | TB | 11 | -233 | — | QB65 |
| 73 | T25Clayton Tune | GB | 8 | -236 | — | QB68 |
| 74 | Tyson Bagent | CHI | 8 | -236 | — | QB66 |
| 75 | Kyle Allen | DET | 7 | -237 | — | QB79 |
| 76 | T26Brett Rypien | CIN | 6 | -238 | — | QB74 |
| 77 | Brandon Allen | TEN | 5 | -239 | — | QB71 |
Data baseline from the projection models · refreshed 16 Jul 2026.
Per-game projections from prior-season form, usage and opponent strength — a data baseline, not a betting edge. Rookies without NFL production are placed by market ADP, not model-projected. For entertainment / draft research — 18+.
In 1-QB leagues the numbers still say wait: the projected gap between the QB10 and a late-round or waiver QB is the smallest positional drop-off in fantasy. Our board ranks by VOR, so the table itself tells you when a passer finally beats the best RB/WR left. The exceptions are the elite dual-threat QBs, whose rushing floor genuinely separates them — and Superflex leagues, where a second starting QB slot roughly doubles the position's scarcity and pushes QBs into the early rounds.
Scoring math: a rushing yard is worth 0.1 points against 0.04 per passing yard, and a rushing TD scores 6 against 4 for a passing TD. Rushing volume is also more stable week to week than TD passes, so a QB with a designed run role carries both a higher ceiling and a safer floor — that combination is exactly what the projection model rewards.
Because of replacement value. A QB projected for 350 points sounds huge, but if a freely available QB projects for 300, he only adds ~50 points over replacement. An RB projected for 280 with a 180-point replacement adds 100. VOR captures that scarcity, which is why the overall board drafts scarce RB/WR production before high-scoring but deep QB production.